Friday, April 27, 2007

A Battle Between Momentum and Price, Which One Do You Trust??


The key technical concept is that changes in momentum precede changes in price. That is, in a battle between momentum and price, always trust momentum. We can use the MACD histogram to measure the velocity of price movement (momentum), which can offer us a very strong clue to future price action. As a matter of fact, I make my whole trades out of this pattern, and you know what, I only trade high-probability winning trades (unless my brain is half-functioning! which can be occurred sometimes).
How to read the MACD histogram as a tool to measure momentum??
1- A buy signal is generated once the MACD histogram makes a higher low on one of its bars.
2- A sell signal is generated once the MACD histogram makes a lower high on one of its bars.
See the chart.

Asas kepada analisis teknikal ialah perubahan momentum akan berlaku lebih awal dari perubahan kepada price. Pendek kata, kalau kita ada pilihan nak pilih momentum atau price, kita mesti pilih momentum. Momentum adalah kadar kelajuan perubahan price. Daripada perbezaan antara momentum dan price lah yang menyebabkan wujudnya bull/bear divergence.
1- Signal beli terjadi pabila MACD histogram mencatat 'a higher low' pada salah satu barnya.
2- Signal jual terjadi pabila MACD histogram mencatat 'a lower high' pada salah satu barnya.
Lihat carta.

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