Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Dollar Gains As Interest Rates Look Set To Rise

The Dollar gained across the board after ultra-hawk Fed Member Plosser commented on Tuesday that the Fed’s Interest Rate Policy should be reversed as quickly as possible. Also buoying the Greenback was multiple economic reports beating forecasts. June Durable Goods Orders surprised to the upside coming in +0.8% vs. expectations of -0.3%. Housing data improved with New Home sales coming at 530K vs. expectations of 505K. Weekly Jobless Claims jumped to 406K well above expectations of 379K but continuing claims dipped 9K to 3.107 Million. Also supporting was the Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment jumping to 61.2 from a preliminary reading of 56.2.

The Euro lost ground against the USD and GBP this week as Oil continued to retreat and Eurozone Data disappointed. The July German IFO fell below 100 for the first time since 2005 and the European Services and Manufacturing PMI’s both fell under 50 to 48.3 and 47.5 respectively. Some support was seen from the higher than forecast German Import Price Index at 1.5% in June vs. expectations of a 1% increase. The Euro closed down 0.94% at 1.5701 having opened at 1.5848.

The Japanese Yen traded in a large range as equity volatility continued especially on Thursday’s US lead stock decline. Commodity crosses came under pressure as the Oil and Gold lead the pullback. Japans trade surplus fell to 138 Billion Yen on increased Imports and the June CPI rose to 1.9% y/y. GBP/JPY traded to new highs multi-month highs above 215. The USD/JPY gained 0.86% closing at 107.89, after opening the week at 106.96. The GBP fell against the USD but gained against all the other Majors as MPC July Meeting minutes showed a surprise 7-1-1 with Member Beasley voting for a cut. Pulling the GBP lower on Thursday was a record breaking drop in June Retail Sales of -3.9%. The GBP/USD lost 0.39% closing at 1.9912 after opening at 1.9990.

(Source: Easy Forex)

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