Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Boy do I feel lucky to be an Elliott Wave surfer on days like these. I could see traders driving themselves bonkers trying to navigate today's range that was going nowhere in a hurry.
I am working a wave iv-of-4 count that should terminate at 104.00, which brings wave 5 to new lows into play.
The Elliott Oscillator confirmed the wave 3 low by printing a new momentum low, and is now pulling back to the zero line which is characteristic of a wave 4 pullback. From here, we expect wave 5 to break to new price lows, but the Elliott Oscillator should print a higher-low as momentum diverges from the new price low.
But before I look to get short into 104.00, I am going drop down to the smaller time frames to play this B-wave triangle break above 102.70 that should bring us into 104.00. For tonight, I am going to be on the bid for USDJPY in wave e-of -B from 102.30 down to 102.00 with stops below 101.65 for the eventual topside triangle break at 102.70. Once above 102.70, I will try to add to the position and trail stops higher for the move towards 104.00. At around 103.80 I will begin scaling out of the long position to flip and get short with stops not closer than 30 points for the ride all the way back down.

Traders, this is POTENTIALLY a very significant turn in USDJPY that has been materializing for approximately 3 weeks now. You usually only see these opportunities once or twice per month. For my personal trading accounts it is in these situations that I step up my aggression by increasing both my position size and entry/exit parameters. Is there a chance I might get stopped out? Sure, but I believe that dealing in and around the most significant price levels with aggressive trading tactics using CLEARLY DEFINED RISK PARAMETERS separates the professionals from the amateurs. So for me, the risk is not a concern. Back with you tomorrow.

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