Friday, May 04, 2007

Everybody Loves NFP!!............

I bet everybody is waiting for tonight's NFP, everybody loves to trade NFP, me included. The current consensus estimate for payrolls is 100k, but for the dollar to resume its rally last night, the number has to be between 110k-130k. There's a bullish divergence signal in the 15-M chart, I guess euro will be crawling back and forth between 1.3540-1.3560, before the fireworks get starting off. Indicators such as ADP have pointed towards a disappointing NFP release near or below forecasts. If we see NFP below expectations, euro may easily return to its high near 1.3680. On the other hand, a jump in payrolls would give a serious kick in the butt for euro..could trailing back again to its nearest supports.
My money is pay attention not only to the prime data, but also to the revised number....
Good luck guys...

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