Sunday, April 22, 2007

Further Elaboration..

Salam,
I would like to explain further regarding an anticipatory trader versus a reactive trader. Let give one example, let say price falls and find support. An anticipatory trader would simply assume that the price will find its footing and will place his buy order and expect that buyers will materialize and will rally the currency higher. This is akin to standing in front of an oncoming train and hoping that the driver will hit the brakes fast enough for the train to stop before running you over. Needless to say, this is a very low-probability winning trade. Financially difficult and psychologically draining.

Reactive traders, as the name implies, will not “front-run” the price action. Instead they will observe how the price behaves at the key support. Only after the price stabilizes and then proceeds to make a series of higher lows, will the reactive trader enter the trade. Such as after we detect a bullish divergence in our indicator. The probability of success will be higher.

That’s why I said patience and emotional controls are more important than our technical or trade setups.

Saya cuba post dalam bahasa, korang-korang jangan gelak pulak.
Ada dua jenis kategori trader, reaktif (respon) dan antisipatif (mengharap).
Antisipatif = Trader yang suka masuk pasaran secara terburu-buru. Sebagai contoh apabila price jatuh sehingga ke support, trader ini akan terus masuk pasaran, dengan harapan trader lain pun akan berbuat begitu dan akan membuatkan price naik. Tetapi cara ini amat berbahaya kerana price akan berlegar-legar di antara beberapa supportnya. Jarak antara dua supoort boleh menjangkau 50 pips, kalau nasib tak baik, akan sentuh stop loss trader tu. Umpama berdiri atas landasan keretapi secara tiba-tiba dengan harapan keretapi tu akan berhenti bila nampak kita. Kemungkinan untuk mati (loss) amatlah tinggi.

Reaktif = Nama pun reaktif atau respon. Trader ni penuh penyabar (macam saya), dia akan perhati dulu price, tunggu hingga stabil dan ada signal, barulah dia masuk pasaran. Signal boleh terdiri daripada 'bullish divergence', 'oversold and make a turn over' dan lain-lain. Kalau dia terlepas peluang pun, redha ajelah.

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